Advance Durable Goods Orders: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods in March 2024 was up 2.6%(m/m) to $283.4, following the 0.7% increase in February. The always-volatile nondefense aircraft orders, down 0.3% y/y, influenced this trend significantly.

The Advance Report on Durable Goods (DG) is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories.

Capital goods orders increased by 6.0% for the month but are down 0.9% on a y/y basis. Transportation orders increased by 7.7% but were down 1.8% vs. a year ago. Leaving out transportation business, orders was up 0.2% and increased 1.3% y/y.

Motor vehicles and parts were up 2.1% m/m as orders increased 0.6% y/y. Orders for primary metal were down 0.5% m/m and have decreased 0.6% y/y. Durable goods shipments were flat and are up by 1.2% vs. a year ago. Capital goods shipments was down 1.4% m/m and are up 1.5% y/y.

Figure 1 shows the history of DG orders from 2010 to present. New orders totaled $283.4M in March, an 1.3% increase y/y.

At Gerdau, we routinely monitor advance durable goods orders since it provides a good read on the current health of the US manufacturing economy and its probable short-run future.